“
Dear Berit,
I'm sending hereby my article
David's Sling; Is It Broken?
Would be
grateful for publication
Truly yours
Alexander Maistrovoy, a Israeli journalist
David's Sling;
Is It Broken?
Israel can become a price
for resetting relations with Arabs
Henry Kissinger’s recent
statement, that in 10 years Israel will cease to exist, borders with senile.
Although one of his staff members denied it, Cindy Adams from New York Post
insisted: “Reported to me, Henry Kissinger has stated - and I quote the
statement word for word: 'In 10 years, there will be no more Israel '”.
Kissinger is
a controversial figure.
He
can hardly be suspected
of excessive
sympathy for Israel. He
perhaps, inclines to the
"syndrome
of self-hatred" so
fashionable nowadays
in the Jewish
elite. At the same time,
Kissinger is not
an exalted pop-diva,
cheap
populist
or
rebellious professor.
He is an experienced,
prudent
politician
who takes responsibility
for his utterance.
What drove
him to such a
dramatic
conclusion?
Is there a real and
grave threat
to Israel ?
Let's try to
analyze the situation.
The first impression is
rather unfavorable.
Israel has been in the midst
of historic
upheaval.
The political structure of
the Middle East that existed since
Camp David agreement has collapsed,
forming a giant cloud of
dust
and chaos, from which the new
threatening
reality can crystallize.
America
under Obama is deserting the Middle East .
The future of Europe becomes vaguer
as it loses its perspective. Iran becomes a
regional power with nuclear weapons
while Turkey -
recently
a strategic
ally of Israel
– raves
Ottoman greatness.
A closer
analysis of the situation reveals a
different picture - not so
bleak.
Israel indeed remains an alien
backed to
sea
nation in a world of anarchy,
religious fanaticism, rioting
crowds and
insane
dictators. Regardless, the country has
a strong and
viable economy,
advanced technology, modern
army and flexible
democratic system.
On the other
hand, the
Arab regimes
that emerge
from the remains of
the collapsed
autocracies are
extremely unstable,
as in Egypt. In some cases they will
not be able to establish a state in
any
form for a long time, like
in Syria.
They
have neither
financial
nor intellectual recourses to challenge
Israel. Iran
is doomed
to sink deeper
in the
swamp of the Sunni-Shiite
conflict
(Syria and
Bahrain are good examples);
its economy is unilateral
and
vulnerable; its armament is outdated.
Nuclear bomb
is an excellent means
of blackmail,
but its use
against Israel - given
the nuclear - missile
power
of the latter - would end the
regime and
the country itself.
Erdogan’s Turkey
managed
to alienate all its neighbors
- from Greece , Cyprus and
the Balkan
Christian states
to Iran
and the Assad regime.
Kurds
are the “Achilles’ heel”
of the Turks and the wounds
inflicted by
the PKK
militants are bleeding stronger.
In a way Israel
goes back to
antiquity. Like in
the Kingdom of David, it stands
alone and confronts
numerous,
but
scattered, non-disciplined and feuding
enemies.
Similar to the biblical era,
Egypt is
swamped in its
own problems – internal intrigues
and fighting
with armed
nomads.
Deserts - Sinai and Negev
– create a powerful
natural buffer between two countries.
Even with the help of
American weaponry, the Egyptian army
is scarcely ready
for modern warfare, based
on sudden and daring
decisions.
For weak
Hashemite dynasty,
like for
the kingdom
of Moab,
the very existence
of the Jewish state is
the key to the relative safety
in the face of
hostile and
aggressive neighbors.
Abdullah
II,
like his father, Hussein,
is well aware of the fact
that
Israel’s agony would become his
own agony.
Syria is
traditionally hostile to Israel, but unaided
it is doomed to failure.
Just like
King David had
slammed
the pride of
Aram-Damascus kings,
Israel
did not leave the
Syrians
even a slight chance of winning - neither
on the ground
in 1967
and 1973, nor in the air
in 1982
*. Also, modern Syria, the same as the
ancient one, is not more than mosaic,
eclectic and
shaky formation.
As
the Philistines in ancient times,
Hamas in Gaza and
"Hezbollah"
can strike
painful blows
to Israel, but
they do not present
a fatal threat
to the country.
Besides, today,
they struggle for their own survival.
Sunni
radicalism threatens "Hezbollah"
in Lebanon. Hamas is
forced to face and confront the growing
discontent
of the population, on the one
hand, and
the Salafi
groups,
on the other.
At last,
lax,
corrupt, parasitical and clinging on
international
handouts
PA government
may be trying to
undermine Israel’s influence, but
these attempts,
as the efforts of
Ammonites,
cannot change the
balance of power.
Iran, like
Turkey,
has a very
long way to go
to claim the
role of
Assyria and Babylon upon themselves.
As a result, with its
powerful army and stable economy, the
Jewish state, as the Kingdom
of David,
can maintain its
security by playing with the contradictions
of its enemies and by
engaging in
short-term
alliances
with its neighbors.
Russia is only “superpower”
which is
theoretically capable of enhancing its
influence in the region. However,
on a paradoxical level, the interests
of the Kremlin
and Israel
largely
overlap. It’s not accidental that Putin’s recent visit (first in
the Middle East after
his reelection)
was perceived by Jerusalem
as a very
successful one. The relations between
the two countries are
a classic example of
a basic
law of politics: “The
enemy of my enemy is my
friend”.
Moscow, like Jerusalem, has
two dangerous
enemies in the Middle East:
bellicose
Turkey,
and even more
belligerent
Sunni
Islamism.
In the long run,
a fatal threat
to Israel
may come from
the unified
Arab world
but it is still too
far from reaching its
dream of
the Caliphate.
Is there
any powerful
force that can
fatally
undercut the strength of Israel?
There is – it is the West.
Israel is
part of the West and has associated
itself with the
West.
The West, on the contrary, increasingly perceives Israel
as a
burden. This can already be considered
a fait accompli
for Europe,
Obama has chosen this path too.
From the beginning he preferred rapprochement
with the Arab world
at the expense of
the Jewish state. We have too many proofs of
this fact: from admiration of Edward Said
and fondness for
Rashid
Khalidi (initiator of raising funds
for the Peace Flotilla
in 2010) to his real policies (from
the speech
at the Cairo
University, bowing
to the
Saudi monarch and to shameful shout
outs to Israel to stop construction
in the settlements and
even in
Jerusalem).
The policy and actions of
both USA under Obama
and the EU
have their own logic.
Tectonic
turmoil
in the Middle East forms a
new reality. In
theory, it allows the West to regenerate
the relations with the Arabs
- the
"reset" of Obama.
Logic dictates getting rid
of
all obstacles
that prevent
this
reset and the betrayal of
Mubarak - the cornerstone
of U.S. policy
in the Middle
East during many years – is the
writing on the wall.
If getting rid of Mubarak
was one of the requirements of the reset process,
what will stop them from
doing the same with Israel?
Absolutely
nothing, the second
term will loosen
Obama’s hands.
Israel's economy
is tied to the
EU; Israel's
security and political
legitimacy
based on the relations with US.
Shut
these channels - Israel will go down
in few years, because it
will not withstand a state of
total isolation.
Israelis
are accustomed
to high standards of living;
they
cannot imagine their existence without
close professional, scientific
and cultural contacts
with the West.
Israeli
military power is vastly based on
American
development and
support systems.
For example, missile defense
system
“David's
Sling” for
intercepting ballistic missiles in
radius of 260 km., so
vital to
Israel, is
a joint venture with American
Raytheon Company.
Cut back on cooperation
will weaken
Israel, denying
its
missile shield against
Syria
and "Hezbollah". And this applies
to all military
areas.
Moreover, West’s ostracism
will give a powerful
impetus for
domestic
conflicts -
a mortal threat
to the
Jewish statehood: from
the Kingdoms of David and Solomon to
Hasmonean dynasty
to Israel in the present.
Isolated and
split,
it will lose its
binding capacity.
South Africa is the
example of
how easy it is
for the West
to wipe
off the map a country, which is
connected to it and virtually dependent on
it.
The "Munich
Syndrome" is deeply
rooted in the
political psychology
of the West:
the banal
shortsightedness, futility
and cowardice are traditionally
called "pragmatism"- and
pragmatism is
respected. In this context
Kissinger‘s forecast
is quite
pragmatic...
*-
In the
air battles of
June 1982
the Syrian
air force
has lost
84
combat aircraft, Israel
has not lost
a single plane.
Posted with
permission
Alexander Maistrovoy’s bio:
"I was born in Moscow in 1960. In the 80s I began working in
journalism and my work was published in various Moscow newspapers. I
immigrated to Israel in 1988 where I work for the Russian-language
Israeli press. For about fifteen years I’ve been a political analyst
and journalist at the newspaper
Novosty Nedely (“News of the Week”).
I live in Jerusalem, write about politics, social life and religion. A number of English Internet editions and websites have published my work."
Mr. Maistrovoy can be reached at
amaist@lycos.com
|
Previous articles by Alexander Maistrovoy:
The Upturned World
One Country and
Three Civilizations
Jews in Holy Land? What Jews?
Israel's "Samson Option": Choice in the Absence of Choice?
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